Social media channels are buzzing with talk of the expected return of La Niña this coming winter. And various purveyors of fine Canadian Powder skiing and riding experiences are predicting the winter of our dreams. It would appear that one would have to be slightly insane not to plan for a helicopter skiing odyssey this winter. Sounds amazing, but is it too good to be true?

The first thing to understand is that long-term forecasts of complex systems (like global weather patterns) are inherently flawed. There are simply too many variables. And humans just aren’t smart enough to figure these things out. Add to that the complexities of how air masses move and change over time – and how they are pushed, pulled and lifted by the mountains – and we’re left with weather forecasts that provide reasonably good accuracy within a 12-24 hour time period only, then become less and less reliable each day into the forecast period. So what’s up with seasonal forecasts then? Long-term and large-scale weather forecasts are based on huge datasets and complex algorithms and do tend to provide a decent window into the future – but in general terms only. Take El Niño and La Niña for example.

The El Niño and La Niña Southern Oscillation is a cycle associated with warm and cold bands of water that form in the Pacific Ocean. Temperatures are measured at the ocean surface and play a huge role in creating weather systems that dump snow in the mountains of Western Canada. El Niño is the warm phase and La Niña is the cold phase. Generally speaking, El Niño winters are mild and wet and La Niña winters are cool and stormy.

In the months leading up to last winter’s helicopter skiing season, the news was awash with horrific predictions of a warm and terrible winter. A “Monster El Niño” was brewing in the Pacific Ocean and we were almost certainly in for a winter that would favor golf over powder skiing. But El Niño came and went without too much drama. By all accounts, it was a “warmish” but great winter in Canada – it was just cold enough. Both guests and guides were happy, day after day and week after week.

So, we’re in for a great winter then – right? The simple answer is “probably”.

But the best answer is that it’s Canada. And it’s almost always good here anyhow. Truth: in almost 20 years of guiding, I have yet to get totally skunked during a week of heli skiing. That is not to say that I have not had some difficult weeks. But there has always been some way to pull the rabbit out of the hat – this is the fundamental beauty of having a helicopter in the mountains. We are able to fly to where the skiing is good, to problem solve with a helicopter.

Although we don’t know exactly how the coming winter will play out, we’ve got a number of things on our side:

• We’re lucky enough to operate in the global mecca of heli skiing: British Columbia.
• The seasonal forecast is for an “anti-El Niño” – bring on La Niña!
• Historically, La Niña winters have been very kind to the North Central Coast: deep and consistent powder skiing and riding.
• It’s Canada! It’s almost always good here…

As I have for most of my life, I’m so looking forward to the coming winter. Whether La Niña graces us with her presence or not, I know we’ll enjoy a long season of incredible mountain experiences with great people from around the globe.

...from the summer desk of Ken Bibby, Operations Manager

info@WWHeliski.com

www.wwheliski.com